110,000 is the example result. Read it using the units and relationship stated below.
Estimate expected sales by weighting each pipeline amount by its probability of closing.
Read the forecast as expected value
The forecast estimates revenue under the probabilities entered here. It does not identify which individual deals will close. Use opportunities from one defined pipeline and reporting period. The supplied example produces 110,000. Compare that expected value with the concentration of revenue in a few large deals before making delivery commitments.
What the model includes
Result = [Open pipeline A] × [Probability A] ÷ 100 + [Open pipeline B] × [Probability B] ÷ 100 + [Open pipeline C] × [Probability C] ÷ 100 The forecast is a planning relationship. Closed revenue, bookings and collected cash are different source measures; choose the one represented by the field labels. Compare a forecast with its stage evidence before assigning delivery or hiring commitments. Review the gap by account and owner. Increasing an average deal value on a worksheet is not evidence that the current pipeline can deliver that value.
Example with the supplied inputs
Open pipeline A: 100000; Probability A: 25; Open pipeline B: 75000; Probability B: 60; Open pipeline C: 50000; Probability C: 80. Result: 110,000. The values are illustrative.
Compare one changed input
Open pipeline A changes from 100000 to 110000. The result becomes 112,500. All other inputs remain fixed.
Calculation rule
Result = [Open pipeline A] × [Probability A] ÷ 100 + [Open pipeline B] × [Probability B] ÷ 100 + [Open pipeline C] × [Probability C] ÷ 100
Inputs and output
| Input | Example value | Entry convention |
|---|---|---|
| Open pipeline A | 100000 | Use the source quantity represented by open pipeline a. Keep the counted population fixed and avoid mixing a unit value with a period total. |
| Probability A | 25 | Use the source quantity represented by probability a. Keep the counted population fixed and avoid mixing a unit value with a period total. |
| Open pipeline B | 75000 | Use the source quantity represented by open pipeline b. Keep the counted population fixed and avoid mixing a unit value with a period total. |
| Probability B | 60 | Use the source quantity represented by probability b. Keep the counted population fixed and avoid mixing a unit value with a period total. |
| Open pipeline C | 50000 | Use the source quantity represented by open pipeline c. Keep the counted population fixed and avoid mixing a unit value with a period total. |
| Probability C | 80 | Use the source quantity represented by probability c. Keep the counted population fixed and avoid mixing a unit value with a period total. |
Output: 110,000 is the example result. Read it using the units and relationship stated below. Use the formula to distinguish a cash amount, count, percentage or ratio.
How to use the page
Collect the inputs
Gather Open pipeline A, Probability A, Open pipeline B. Use one period and the units shown in the form.
Run the calculation
Enter the values and select the action. The calculation rule above explains how the inputs produce the result.
Compare a scenario
Change Open pipeline A on its own, keeping the other inputs fixed. Read both results before changing another assumption.
Worked example
With the example inputs listed above, the result is 110,000.
Change Open pipeline A from 100000 to 110000 while keeping every other value fixed. The result becomes 112,500. This comparison isolates that input; it does not forecast how other variables will respond.
Check the stated formula, units and limits before using the result in a decision.
Keep the displayed formula, input units and model scope with the result. Corrections or questions can be sent through the request section on this page.
Content updated: October 11, 2026